COVID-19: Genetic tests

COVID-19 testing is very much in the news these days. Let’s take a look.

There are two main types of testing: detection of the pathogen (SARS-CoV-2) itself and antibody testing. In detective-speak, the first kind of testing looks for the perpetrator while the second kind of testing looks for the perpetrator’s footprints. The science and machinery are quite different. This article discusses the first kind of test: pathogen detection.

SARS-CoV-2 detection looks for the presence (or absence) of the pathogen’s genetic material. Genetic testing doesn’t try to match a sample against the entire SARS-CoV-2 genome. Instead, genetic tests target specific genes within the genome. It looks for specific sequences within SAR-CoV-2 genetic RNA. Unlike cells which store genetic information in DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid), the SARS-CoV-2 virus stores genetic information in RNA (ribonucleic acid).

The World Health Organization guidance recommends five target sequences which can be used to identify the presence of SARS-CoV-2:

  • Nucleocapsid gene (N)
  • Envelope gene (E)
  • Spike gene (S)
  • RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene (RdRP)

The capsid and envelope genes code for the proteins forming the shell around the virus. The spikes are the proteins protruding from the shell and are the attachment points for cell infection. The RdRP gene codes for the chemical enzyme (polymerase) that assist the replication of virus RNA. The RdRP in this case is specific to SARS-CoV-2. All of these genes are SARS-CoV-2 fingerprints. (See “COVID-19: Know Your Foe.”)

The amount of RNA in a sample is very minute and is not sufficient for immediate chemical analysis. The sample RNA must be amplified, a fancy way of increasing the concentration (amount) of targeted RNA. These kinds of tests are called nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT).

One form of NAAT is the reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). You may have seen the term “RT-PCR” in the news. RT-PCR is a bread-and-butter technique in genetics research and drug development. Reverse transcrption (RT) turns the RNA into DNA which is amplified using polymerase chain reaction (PCR).

Without deep diving PCR (there are many good on-line tutorials), the term “chain reaction” hints at the technique. We know how an uncontrolled nuclear chain reaction leads to explosive fission. One nucleus splits causing two other nuclei to split and so on. PCR is a chain reaction in which DNA splits into two halves producing two new complete strands of DNA which split into four halves and so on. Each cycle doubles the concentration of the DNA in the sample. Eventually, enough DNA is available in the sample to reliably detect the presence of target genetic sequences.

Real time RT-PCR uses flourescent dyes to reveal the presence of targeted genetic material. Results are produced much faster than older methods employing radioactive isotope markers. Because speed matters, real time RT-PCR is widely used throughout the research and medical communities.

Real time RT-PCR is automated and many manufacturers, like Abbott Molecular, sell machines. Real time RT-PCR machines run a sample through multiple amplification cycles, typically, 30 to 40 cycles. Fluorescence is measured after each cycle. When fluorescence exceeds a threshold, the test is positive, confirming the presence of the targeted genetic sequence (and the pathogen). The machine counts the number of cycles needed to exceed the threshold. Severe infection (i.e., more pathogen RNA in the original sample) requires fewer cycles.

See “How is the COVID-19 Virus Detected using Real Time RT-PCR?”

Abbott M2000 RealTime System

The Abbott M2000 RealTime System is one example of a real time RT-PCR testing machine. The M2000 can test up to 96 samples in one run: 93 patient samples and 3 control samples. Control samples are required to assure valid results. Both positive and negative control samples are required.

Abbott M2000 RealTime System

The M2000 is a large machine suitable for a laboratory setting.

Like the RT-PCR machines from other vendors, the M2000 requires consumable supplies. Consumable supplies are usually machine-specific. If you own a laser or inkjet printer, you’re already familiar with this concept. 😉 The vendor develops and manufactures pathogen-specific test kits in the form of cartridges, etc. that are physically compatible with their machines.

The Abbott RealTime SARS-CoV-2 EUA test is Abbott’s COVID-19 test for the M2000. “EUA” means “Emergency Use Authorization.” Authorization is issued by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). EUA limits the use of the SARS-CoV-2 EUA test and is not full FDA approval. The Abbott RealTime SARS-CoV-2 EUA test is designed specifically for the M2000 real time RT-PCR system for use by authorized laboratories in the U.S.

The M2000 can process up to 470 patient samples in 24 hours, roughly five runs per day, 93 patient samples per run. Abbott planned to ramp up U.S. production to one million tests per week by the end of March. This goal is far short of the millions of tests which experts believe are needed in order to re-open the economy.

Reagents are one of the consumables and you’ve probably heard the term “reagents” in the news as an item which is in short supply. Reagents are one of the main components of the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 test kit. The reagents break open the SAR-CoV-2 virus and release its genetic material (viral RNA). The reagents recognize targeted segments of the SARS-CoV-2 genome, ignoring genetic material from other viruses. The reagents select targeted genes for amplification. The Abbott RealTime SARS-CoV-2 test (assay) targets the RdRP and N genes.

The fine print notes “Negative results do not preclude SARS-CoV-2 infection and should not be used as the sole basis for patient management decisions. Negative results must be combined with clinical observations, patient history, and epidemiological information.” Thus, Abbott acknowledges that false negatives are possible.

The M2000 made the news in early April when Dr. Birx (White House coronavirus response coordinator) stated that 80% of the 175 Abbott machines in 120 laboratories across the U.S. were not being fully utilized. The machines are located in academic medical centers and hospital laboratories [Bloomberg News]. I suspect that the bottleneck is collecting samples and getting samples to the central laboratories. New York State plans to have pharmacies collect samples thereby increasing the number of tests per day and improving RT-PCR utilization.

Other big players in the market are Thermo Fisher Scientific (Applied Biosystems TaqPath), Roche )Cobas 6800/8800 System) and BD Molecular (BD MAX System). These tests target other SARS-CoV-2 genes like S and ORF-1AB in addition to N and RdRP.

Abbott ID Now

The Abbott ID NOWâ„¢ system is a small machine suitable for a doctor’s office or portable use (8.15″W x 5.7″H x 7.64″D). The Abbott machine was developed originally by Alere. (Abbott acquired Alere in October 2017.) The ID NOW is used to detect the influenza A and B2 viruses as well as COVID-19. ID NOW costs about $12,000USD.

Abbott ID NOWâ„¢ system

Multi-cycle RT-PCR tests raise and lower the sample temperature during each cycle. ID NOW operates at a single constant temperature, so-called isothermal chemistry. Thus, ID NOW can obtain results faster than conventional real time RT-PCR.

The overall test process is similar. Reagents break open viral RNA in the sample. The reagents recognize the target sequence in the pathogen. The isothermal amplification chemistry amplifies the selected genetic sequence. Fluorescent probes recognize and attach to each replicated sequence. The probe molecules fluoresce. The ID NOW hardware monitors fluorescence. When fluorescence exceeds a trigger threshold, a positive result is displayed.

Like the M2000, it uses consumable supplies like its reagent test cartridge, e.g., the ID NOW COVID-19 assay. A single test costs about $50USD.

The COVID-19 assay targets the SARS-CoV-2 RdRP gene. Results come fast — a positive result in 5 minutes (minimum) or a negative result in 13 minutes. The ID NOW COVID-19 assay is available for use under FDA EUA and is only available in the U.S. The ID NOW COVID-19 test is not yet approved or cleared by the U.S. FDA.

Machines like the Abbott ID NOWâ„¢ could greatly speed up COVID-19 testing. Big M2000 machines are centrally located and patient samples must be sent to the lab. The sample may await other samples for a full run. Then results must be reported back to the physician and patient. The round-trip takes too long; a delay of several days is not uncommon. The Abbott ID NOW can be located on site, potentially reducing the round-trip to an hour or two.

The chief disadvantage is cost. The ID NOW single test, cartiridge approach is nore expansive than M2000’s batch testing. ID NOW targets a single SARS-CoV-2 gene, RdRP, making it vulnerable to a mutation in this one gene. The M2000 targets three genes and is less vulnerable to a mutation.

Stay distant and stay healthy — P.J. Drongowski

COVID-19: Washington State April 15

Time for this week’s Washington update. I’m tracking the daily positivity rate for Washington State using data from the Washington Department of Health, the University of Washington Virology Laboratory and the Snohomish Health District.

The daily positivity rate is the percentage of positive COVID-19 test results for each 24 hour period. The rate adjusts for the number of tests which varies from day to day.

The daily positivity rate is a useful metric, but an imperfect one. As I’ve said in previous posts, we need a proper epidemiologic study of COVID-19.

The first graph (below) is the daily positivity rate for Washington State though April 15. Why April 15 and not today, 24 April 2020? The Department of Health does not guarantee complete data for the most recent days. The data through April 15 is (nearly) complete although a few test results still trickle in.

Washington State daily positivity rate (April 15, 2020)

As noted in the graph posted last week, the state is past the peak and is in a slow decline. The peak occurred in late March. The daily positivity rate has declined to where it was in mid-March.

For comparison, here is the data from the UW Virology Lab. UW performs testing for and county and state health authorities. [Click images to enlarge.]

University of Washington positivity rate (April 23, 2020)

The shape of the graph is consistent with the overall state data. The Virology Lab data is up-to-date since they just report daily results for the lab itself (samples in, results out).

The Washington State epidemiologic curve (below) is informative, too. Known cases are tallied by the date of illness onset.

Washington State epidemiologic curve (April 22, 2020)

The epidemiologic curve shows a steady decline due to community mitigation, also known as “social distancing.” This is good news.

To complete the picture, here is the epidemiologic curve for Snohomish County, where I live.

Snohomish Country epidemiologic curve (April 15,2020)

Snohomish County shows a similar decline in new confirmed cases. Again, this is good news.

The big question for Governor Inslee and other decision makers is “How low is enough?” The answer to this question determines when social distancing can be relaxed. Currently, social distancing is expected to be in place until May 4th at the earliest. Hopefully, Washington will beef up contact tracing and isolation over the next two weeks. Then, it’s whack-a-mole.

Stay distant and stay healthy. Science works — P.J. Drongowski

COVID-19: Washington State April 8

My weekly chart showing the positivity rate for Washington State is a tad late. The Washington Department of Health (DOH) has been busy fixing and upgrading its web site. The new site is a quite an improvement with informative charts, graphs and tables.

Looking at their data, I can appreciate the depth of their collection and reporting problems. Their old database was a “peacetime” tool, collecting positive results from a few of Washington’s many counties. In the fight against COVID-19, all counties are reporting at once and epidemiologists and decision makers want and need additional data about the number of tests, sex, age, etc. Of course, doing all of this work in the middle of a crisis must raise the IT stress level!

The state DOH site now reports detailed testing information in the form of a bar chart. The bar chart shows the number of positive and negative tests each day based on specimen date. This is a meaningful time base as it allows a snapshot of the positivity rate on a given day. It’s much harder to organize test data in this way than just lumping test results willy-nilly as they come in. (See “stress level” above.)

Because all test results for a given specimen day do not arrive at once, the DOH doesn’t guarantee complete results for the days just past. In keeping with their approach, my graph shows the Washington State positivity rate through April 8, 2020. [Click to enlarge graph.]

Washington State Positivity Rate (Through April 8, 2020)

The true peak in the rate occurred on March 28-29, 2020 when it hit 14.49%. The positivity rate has been slowly declining since then. The peak rate was more than double the 5% to 6% rate established around March 10. The new chart agrees reasonably well with raw statistics from the University of Washington Virology Laboratory. UW results, of course, are large portion of the State’s results. A back-of-the-envelope estimate shows that the rate has improved after April 8. Stay tuned.

So, what about those high rates in early March?

The positivity rate is a rather poor indicator which is subject to bias. COVID-19 tests are only administered under certain specific conditions because testing is rationed. Criteria include COVID-19 symptoms (fever, cough, tiredness, difficulty breathing) or contact with a known infected person. Properly, first responders may be given preference since they are most likely to come into contact with infectious people who may or may not be symptomatic. Further, COVID-19 hits nursing homes with vulnerable residents early and hard.

The general public has not been tested in a systematic epidemiological study, i.e., a random sampling of the population at large. Thus, the positivity rate as measured here is imperfect and may not accurately represent what the disease itself is doing in the overall community.

Contact is an important biasing factor and it is why I do not consider results in early March to be baseline. Public health authorities were actively pursuing contacts in early March after the first case of community spread was detected. The number of daily tests ranged from 74 to 500 — small numbers which are easily skewed.

As I’ve mentioned in earlier posts, today’s statistics tell us what the disease was doing 10 to 14 days ago due to the time required for incubation, development of symptoms, clinical presentation, and testing. Washington’s first community mitigation measures went into effect on March 11, with home-stay recommended on March 16 and home-stay ordered on March 16. I think we can safely say “Community mitigation works.”

Now we need the patience to finish the job and win the fight.

Stay distant and stay healthy — P.J. Drongowski

COVID-19: Know Your Foe

OK, that’s a little bit over the top. I was trying to find a way to work NPH into this post. 🙂

Viruses are the simplest biological forms. Viruses are obligate parasites. A virus must invade a host cell in order to reproduce. Viruses contain genetic material, but do not have ribosomes which replicate the genetic material. Viruses use ribosomes in the host cell for replication.

Since a virus cannot reproduce on its own, one may ask if a virus is alive. The question “What is life?” is non-trivial and is not as easy to answer as you may think. Another interesting question to consider is “How did viruses and life begin?”

Please note the term “genetic material.” Viruses are exceptionally diverse. Some viruses are DNA-based, some are RNA-based. Further, the genetic material may be single-stranded or double-stranded. On top of these characteristics, the material may have a linear or a circular structure, or be segmented or non-segmented. Amazing.

RNA-based retroviruses are a huge exception to Francis Crick’s central dogma: DNA makes RNA and RNA makes protein. In a retrovirus, reverse transcriptase (a chemical enzyme/catalyst) synthesizes a DNA copy from viral RNA. The DNA copy integrates into the host genome (in eukaryotic cells). Then, the cell’s protein and replication factory takes over. Eventually, the cell bursts or otherwise expunges the particles and a new cells are infected.

Both ribonucleic acid (RNA) and deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) are large molecules (polymers) — chains of nucleic acid molecules. Genetic material (RNA or DNA) is rather fragile. Strong UV light or heat causes the chemical bonds in RNA and DNA to break. Whether it’s a cell or a virus, genetic material needs to be protected. A virus typically has a hard protein “shell”, called a “capsid,” that surrounds and protects the genetic material inside.

At this point, I recommend the NOVA Labs and Khan Academy tutorial about RNA before reading on. They do quite a decent job of describing RNA, transcription (copying), and protein synthesis. If you want to cut to the chase, jump to the Virus Wars section of the tutorial.

SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus which causes COVID-19, the disease. It is a type of coronavirus. Calling SARS-CoV-2 “coronavirus” is really refering to this specific type of virus by a generic name. (Not quite correct semantically.)

Coronaviruses contain positive-stranded RNA. The RNA is surrounded by an envelope with spike glycoproteins on the envelope. Without a doubt, you’ve seen the SARS-CoV-2 protein model on television — a grey envelope with red spikes. The spikey glycoproteins are composed of two subunits (S1 and S2). The spikes assist binding to a host cell and injection.

SARS-CoV-2 protein model (CDC)

SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 60 to 140 nm in diameter. That’s darned small. A human hair has a diameter of 15 to 181 um, 1000 times larger. The bactrium E. coli is 1 to 2 um in length, still much larger than SARS-CoV-2. Viruses are exceptionally small; they must be small enough to invade host cells like E.coli.

SARS-CoV-2 has a single-stranded RNA genome. Its RNA strand contains 29891 nucleotides and encodes for 9860 amino acids. In biology-speak, that’s almost 30 kb (kilobases, not kilobytes). AS RNA-based viruses go, that’s a fairly large genome.

The folks at Fusion Medical Animation have produced a new SARS-CoV-2 animation. The image below is taken from their animation.

Credit: Fusion Medical Animation

A tour of the genome

The New York Times published an excellent tour of the SARS-CoV-2 genome — Bad News Wrapped in Protein: Inside the Coronavirus Genome .

The Nucleocapsid gene (N), Envelope gene (E), Spike gene (S) and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) genes are important for testing. The WHO and CDC have developed nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT) via reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Targeted genes include the N, E, S, and RdRP genes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome (WHO guidance). RT-PCR amplifies minute quantities of extracted SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a sample (if present) making it possible to assay one or more of the targeted subsequences (genes).

By now, you’ve come a long way along the journey and are ready for the summit. In closing, I recommend Features, Evaluation and Treatment Coronavirus (COVID-19) by Marco Cascella, et al. from the Istituto Nazionale Tumori – IRCCS – Fondazione Pascale. This paper is published by the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), a part of the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH).

If you would like to try your hand at sequencing, you can download the SARS-CoV-2 genome from NCBI. Don’t forget to snag a copy of BLAST. “BLAST finds regions of similarity between biological sequences. The program compares nucleotide or protein sequences to sequence databases and calculates the statistical significance.” STEM teachers, please take note of these resources. NCBI has many other genomes available for download.

Stay healthy, friends — P.J. Drongowski

COVID-19: Washington April 6

Another week has past and it’s time for new charts. I’ve been tracking the daily positivity rate for Washington State. The “positivity rate” is the percentage of positive test results for each 24 hour period. Dividing by the number of tests each day adjusts for variations in daily testing throughput, i.e., the number of tests performed each day is different.

First, here is the chart using test results from the Washington State Department of Health (DOH). [Click to enlarge.]

Daily positivity rate (Washington State, April 3, 2020)

The gaps in the data are due to database issues at DOH. DOH receives and integrates test reports from around the state. Their database has been stressed and has not been tallying negative test results from which one can compute the number of tests per day (i.e., the sum of positive and negative results). Thus, I wasn’t able to compute a daily positivity rate for certain days.

Fortunately, I have the University of Washington Virology Laboratory as back-up. The UW Virology Lab is performing a large portion of tests in Washington. The Lab maintains a dashboard showing the number of tests they performed, the positives, negatives and inconclusives. Inconclusive tests are presumed positive. So, the daily positivity rate is the sum of the positive and inconclusive tests divided by the number of tests performed that day.

Daily positivity rate (UW Virology Lab, April 6, 2020)

Both graphs have a similar shape which shouldn’t be surprising as the UW Virology Lab is a major component in the DOH results. The positivity rate has more than doubled since early March. As of today (April 6), the positivity rate appears to be at a plateau and may show the beginning of a downturn. That’s good news and we need to remain committed to social distancing and other community mitigation measures.

Washington State recommended home-stay on March 16 and closed some businesses (e.g., hair salons, gyms, churches, etc.) I regard these measures as “social distancing lite.” On March 24, the State imposed a stay-at-home order. Given the time lag (10 to 14 days), the turn in the positivity rate is most likely due to the full stay-at-home order.

Fortunately, Governor Inslee has not declared victory. Instead, social distancing measures have been extended to May 4. Further, school has been cancelled through the end of the Spring term.

From my own observations, people in our part of Snohomish County (near Bothell and Everett) are treating COVID-19 seriously and are complying with the stay-at-home order. If a state, county or city is waiting for signs of an outbreak, don’t wait to issue a stay-at-home order. Response now will keep the size of your problem manageable. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

Cleveland, OH

I keep an eye on the old hometown for no other reason than the Cavs and Browns. Cleveland.com published a few useful looking charts and graphs.

As we all go forward, we need to know when our communities have turned the corner and, importantly, when we can restart some business activities. The Ohio Department Health tracks the percentage increase in confirmed cases day-over-day.

Credit: Cleveland.com

Like Washington, Ohio has not hesitated to issue a stay-at-home order and to implement other forms of community mitigation. Gov. Mike DeWine, like Gov. Inslee, may not be the most dynamic individual, but he, too, is leading his state effectively in this crisis. I’m pulling for the folks at home!

Credit: Cleveland.com

This is another Ohio DOH chart which caught my eye. It plots confirmed cases by the onset of symptoms. This chart better aligns case count with the actual time frame in which a patient was infected.

NYT: What’s next?

The New York Times published two good articles on community mitigation and the next phase in our battle against SAR-CoV-2 (COVID-19) — cycles of “suppress and lift” as restrictions are applied and relaxed, so-called waves.

These articles are flying by so fast and so thick that you’ll miss them if you blink.

Stay 2 meters apart and stay healthy — P.J. Drongowski

COVID-19 Numeracy: Round-up

Time for what’s known in the journalism biz as a “round-up.”

I started blogging about COVID-19 numeracy (AKA “by the numbers”) as a way to get my head around all of the data thrown at us by media outlets. Blogging also gave me a way to have the illusion of control over that which I cannot control, namely, the spread of COVID-19.

I hope that my blog posts are a resource for math and science teachers. (I try to keep these posts free of politics, BTW.) If there is a silver lining in all of this, what an opportune time to teach critical thinking and numeracy! I tried to collect the best and most useful examples of data presentation and, I collected a few stinkers, too.

So, here they are, links to my blog posts about COVID-19 numeracy:

If you’re a regular reader, you know that I usually deep-dive music technology and electronics. Fear not, I have been plugging away on music projects, too: Blokas MidiBoy, Toontrack EZKeys, recording demos with Genos, and more. All the projects for which I didn’t have time. Guess I’ve got the time now, just like everyone else. 🙂

I hope to blog about music-related topics as I’m not sure how much value I can add to the on-going COVID-19 discussion. I will continue to track the positivity rate for Washington State since this is my home with family and friends nearby. Plus, there are always subjects (e.g., reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction/RT-PCR testing) that pique my scientific interest.

Washington Post: Bending the curve

Here’s a quick hit from the Washington Post. It’s a set of graphs illustrating the effect of social distancing for select U.S. cities.

Source: Washington Post (April 2, 2020)

With respect to Washington State (Seattle), it’s still early days, really. I think my original guidance holds — we won’t really see a bend from another 7 to 14 days out from this point (April 2). Washington State imposed its first social distancing on March 16 followed by a stay-at-home order on March 23. With the delay due to SARS-CoV-2 incubation, development of symptoms, clinical presentation and testing (10 to 14 days according to medical experts), we should just now be seeing a bend in the curve.

The Washington State Department of Health (WADOH) has had technical issues with its disease reporting database. The original database could not handle the incoming stream of reports including negative test reports. So, the WADOH database went dark for a few days recently and is just now coming back. Due to these technical glitches, we need a little extra time to see the effect of social distancing in Washington.

Stay apart and keep all of us healthy — P.J. Drongowski